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Wednesday, May 29, 2024

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Brazil : Resisting the pull of a downturn

After stagnating in the second half of 2023, economic activity has strengthened in recent months, supported by a surprisingly resilient labor market, amongst other. This good start to the year was however not overtly obvious given the divergence of many indicators. The pace of rate cuts is expected to slow down in the second half of 2024. Monetary easing is indeed coming up against slower-than-expected disinflation and upside risks to inflation expectations. The latter have been dented by the revision of the budgetary targets for 2025-28 and a more pronounced interventionism by the State, anxious to revive investment. The annual G20 summit in November and COP30 next year will provide an opportunity for Brazil to strengthen its leadershipof the Global South in support of issues pertaining to the environment, poverty alleviation and redistribution.

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