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Following Trump’s guilty verdict, first swing state poll reveals how it impacts voters’ decisions

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The first major swing state poll following former President Trump’s guilty verdict in his New York City trial last week revealed a solid lead for one candidate just five months ahead of the November general election.

Georgia voters favor Trump over Biden 49% to 44% in a head-to-head matchup, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, which was taken following the former president’s highly publicized and intensely scrutinized conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Trump’s lead over Biden grew to a six-point spread (43%-37%) with the inclusion of independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (8%) and Cornel West (3%), as well as the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver (3%) and the Green Party’s Jill Stein (2%).

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Presidential candidates

Former President Trump, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and President Biden. (Getty Images)

The all-important independent vote was evenly split between Trump and Biden at 45% each.

Fifty percent said they agreed with the guilty verdict against Trump, while 44% said they disagreed. However, a whopping 54% said the verdict will have no effect on their vote, and 23% said it will make them more likely to vote for the former president. Just 22%, made up mostly of Democrats, said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

Just 18% of independents and 5% of Republicans said the verdict made them less likely to support Trump.

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Donald Trump

Former President Trump in attendance at UFC 302 at Prudential Center June 1, 2024, in Newark, N.J. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Concerning Trump’s election interference case in Fulton County, a 54% majority said they believed Trump did nothing illegal, but 25% believe he did act unethically. Forty-one percent said they believed Trump did something illegal.

Trump holds a double-digit advantage over Biden when it comes to which candidate would better handle voters’ top issues in the race, including immigration (56%-39%), the economy (58%-38%), the Israel-Hamas war (53%-39%) and the war between Russia and Ukraine (54%-41%).

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Voters also believe Trump would be the best candidate to preserve democracy (49%-46%), but Biden held a slight advantage on the issue of abortion (47%-45%).

Biden’s job approval in Georgia stood at 36%, with 60% disapproving.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.


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