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Donald Trump may well have sealed the outcome of the 2024 election with a performance on Thursday night in Milwaukee that has largely been unmatched in recent American political history.
The former president eschewed the polarization and division that has marked much of his rhetoric in the past. In his speech officially accepting the Republican Party’s nomination there were only a couple of references to the 2020 election. Trump was able to hit on key messages when speaking about topics like inflation, and especially immigration, in ways that were compelling and arguably responsive to the fundamental concerns of Americans.
I say this not to engage in hyperbole, as I have never been – and am not now – a Trump supporter. But as a political analyst, you have to acknowledge reality. And the reality of this speech was simple: Trump spoke of the American Dream, he spoke of bringing people together, he spoke of helping African-Americans, Hispanics and those who have been left behind.
In short, Trump did something he has virtually never done before: speak to all the American people. As he said, he wanted to speak not to 50 percent but to 100 percent of the American people.
Trump also understood that this was not a time to attack President Joe Biden personally or even by name. His one reference to Biden was an aside to let the crowd in Milwaukee, and indeed around the country, know what he was thinking at a time when the incumbent president is still reeling from his poor debate performance and from COVID, not to make him appear like a victim. Rather, Trump was able to compellingly crystallize the challenges the American people have with the current administration and offer a degree of reassurance that things would be different under his leadership.
To be sure, Trump did not offer specific policy recommendations in his speech beyond closing the border and cutting taxes. But rather there was a degree of optimism and confidence in his remarks that has been noticeably absent from the darker and more pessimistic speeches the 45th president of the United States has delivered over the years.
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He also, in a way that was tasteful and empathetic, spoke about what happened to him last Saturday in Butler Township, Pa. He discussed his experience of the assassination attempt in a way that had me on the edge of my chair, even though I knew the story quite well and had seen the video many times.
Put another way, the entire speech and its production made Trump much more likable and much more sympathetic than he’s ever been before.
To be sure, circumstances, however difficult and challenging they may have been to get to this point, worked to help the former president. But, by any measure, he rose to the occasion and offered the American people something profound that has been missing under the current administration: hope, strength and a sense that the best was yet to come for our nation.
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I fully expect Trump to increase his standing in the polls as a result of this week. I say that not only because of his Thursday night address, but also because of the entire convention. It was among the best, if not the best, choreographed and produced shows I have seen in 50 years of watching American political conventions.
The effort to reach working people and those who enjoy sports like pro-wrestling and the UFC spoke to the Republicans’ desire to broaden their constituency and solidify their position as the party of working Americans.
I also believe that, if I am right, and Trump does go up in the polls after the GOP convention, the support that has been steadily eroding for Joe Biden since his terrible debate performance just three weeks ago, will only increase, and the pressure on him to quit the race will be inexorable. Indeed, it already appears now to be inevitable.
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It’s hard to see how Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or whoever the Democratic nominee is will compete with this speech and the events of this week. And I fully expect that the division inside the Democratic Party will only increase as a result of the success of the Republican convention.
As an American, I’m pleased, indeed proud, that the Republicans explicitly – and, I think, for the first time – are seeking to unify the entire country and put aside the bitterness and resentment that has so frequently been evident.
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As a Democrat, I’m not sure I know how my party will respond in a month or so to the Trump candidacy. For now, it’s enough to say that the challenges it is facing have only grown larger and more substantial after this week after a speech and convention that could only be called an unqualified success. The events and address in Milwaukee will stand up well to whatever attempts the mainstream media make to discredit Trump and his speech. (And they have already begun.)
Some may say that Trump’s speech went on too long on Thursday night. And that may be true. But the American people, unlike political commentators, simply turn the television off, they don’t give the candidate demerits for being long-winded.
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