‘Base’ candidates on left and right, is there room for the middle this election?

So it turns out that an aw shucks Midwesterner – who grew up in small town Nebraska and went on to be a governor, can team up with the vice president who had run a fairly abysmal campaign for president in 2020 – and generate enormous enthusiasm among a base Democratic crowd who had gotten bored – and was clearly not relishing the idea of supporting the 80-something president who had initially sought reelection, even if he was running against their collective nightmare – the restoration of the administration of Donald Trump. 

Was it enthusiasm – or relief – that we saw during Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’ maiden tour of the key battleground states of the country? 

For the base of the Democratic Party, probably a little of both.

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The Democrats are going to need that relief-catalyzed-enthusiasm in order to overcome the electoral support that polls suggest former President Donald Trump continues to represent.

In 2016, he (narrowly) carried the Electoral College and won the presidency, while getting 46.1% of the vote nationally. In 2020, he almost carried the Electoral College while getting 46.9% of the national vote. This year, the polling averages have consistently had him in the high forties. And three of the most respected national polls taken since Biden dropped out and Harris has emerged all show Trump retaining the support he had against Biden – an average of 48% of voters. 

In other words, he’s still in a solid position to win in November.

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Moreover, while Trump has come under criticism for attacking Kamala Harris for supposedly claiming she had tried to hide her Black heritage  – and attacking fellow Republican, and governor of an essential swing state, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, there’s little evidence that the enthusiasm of his voters has subsided in any way.

But if Trump is well positioned – in the high forties in national polls – that means that Harris needs to take some of his support if she is to feel confident about November.

This year, there was some evidence that Trump could not count on a unified party heading into the general election. During the primaries, the Fox News Voter Analysis found that many Republicans who were voting for South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley said they would not vote for Trump even if he won the nomination. 

But since the primaries concluded – there’s been very little evidence in the polling that any of those voters – the Republicans and independent voters who do not consider themselves a part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement – have moved away from Trump – and Trump remains at 48%.

During the rapid campaign to pick her VP running mate, Harris had a choice of several moderate Democrats – who might have had clear appeal to the moderate voters who preferred Nikki Haley as a candidate. Both Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro – with his support of fracking and school choice – and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelley – who has been leading the Democrats to take the border and immigration issue more seriously  would have clearly defined Harris as more of a moderate – and even to the right of Biden.

Instead, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. While he did represent a historically Republican district, as a six-year governor he has supported fairly progressive policies – on gun safety, legalized marijuana, drivers’ licenses for undocumented aliens, and even transgender care. 

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Now, Walz does not call himself a progressive – as he says “”One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness,” and his quarter-century in the National Guard may make it harder to portray him as “Bernie Sanders” or an “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.” – but he certainly has provided the GOP with ammunition to portray him as one.

Which leaves the Democrats with two choices:

1. Double down on Walz’s progressive record – and try to ensure base turnout in the swing states – and yes, even if Trump gets his current 48% nationally in November – it’s still a toss-up election.

2. Figure out a way, by leveraging that small town persona the Minnesota governor is famous for, to try to cut into and attract some of the more moderate Republican and independent voters – who currently make up a [albeit small] part of Trump’s 48% — even if they show some signs of skepticism. 

Otherwise, the country is faced with yet another “base election” – where each party offers their strongest supporters their fiercest wishes – but which leaves a large chunk of the electorate – the middle – wondering if either party is interested in appealing to them.

The Trump campaign is clearly – because of his record as president – focused on ensuring that their base gets out to vote. 

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The Democrats may think that it’ll be sufficient to bring their base voters out – but I would caution them. The crescendo of rally cheers may be ringing in your ears and giving you hopes right now for a huge Democratic base turnout in November… 

…but, the Trump juggernaut – even after eight years – still seems fairly powerful.

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