The Nasdaq on Friday dropped 3.6%, the S&P 500 2.7%, the worst single day for both indexes since April 4, part of the sell-off following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs offensive. Both indexes cut support at their 21-day exponential moving averages, but held above their 50-day lines.
That points to a high-tension week ahead, as Congress continues its feeble effort to restart the federal government, Oracle (ORCL) and Salesforce.com (CRM) host key AI conferences and companies including Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Charles Schwab (SCHW) set the third-quarter earnings season in motion.
Stocks To Watch: Software Stocks Hold Steady
The market had been running right at record highs, until a hiccup Friday knocked many stocks out of buy zones and away from buy points. But plenty held their ground. Software makers are in focus, including CrowdStrike (CRWD), Zscaler (ZS), Snowflake (SNOW), Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). Zscaler fell slightly on Friday, after briefly peeking above a cup-base buy point. CrowdStrike pulled back to below a cup-with-handle entry, just undercutting its 10-day line. Oracle toyed with a trendline entry Friday before retreating. Palantir also eased back from a buy point. Both Oracle and Palantir had rebounded from brief tumbles within the past week.
Stock Market Econ: Data Still Gridlocked By Congress
The government shutdown is expected to last at least until Tuesday, when the Senate heads back into session. Air traffic delays and concern about mid-month military paychecks add pressure for a resolution. Democrats continue pushing to extend the enhanced ACA subsidies set to expire at year’s end. Republicans still insist that a deal can’t come until after the government reopens. The consumer price index won’t be released on Wednesday as scheduled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled some staff to prepare the report before the Oct. 28-29 Federal Reserve policy meeting. The September CPI also is needed to determine the annual cost of living increase for Social Security.
Earnings Season: Banks Lead Off Q3 Reports
Big banks get the Q3 reporting season rolling with tariff impact and the Federal Reserve rate cut outlook in focus. JPMorgan, Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) report Tuesday. Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC (PNC) and Citizens Financial Group (CFG) deliver results Wednesday. Analysts expect Citizens and Goldman earnings to jump highest.
Despite A Cautious CEO, This Major Bank Is Trending Higher Ahead Of Earnings Report
Blue Chip Journal: Dow Opens Q3 On A Hot Note
The Dow industrials swing into early action this quarter with American Express (AXP), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Travelers (TRV) joining JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the third-quarter season opener. That represents nearly 25% of the index’s weighting — a powerful first week. Heading into the week, American Express erased its gains from an August breakout. J&J is extended from a Sept. 29 breakout and up 32% year to date. Travelers took a nosedive on analyst note Thursday, but remains ahead 14% so far for the year.
Semiconductors: TSMC Seen Getting AI Lift
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s top contract chipmaker, will post its third-quarter earnings early Thursday. Analysts expect the company, better known as TSMC, to earn $2.62 per U.S. share, up 34% year over year. Sales are seen rising 36% to $32.07 billion in Q3. For the fourth quarter, Wall Street predicts TSMC will earn $2.56 a share, up 17%, on sales of $31.48 billion, up 19%. TSMC is benefiting from heightened production of AI data center chips for Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) and others. A sharp pullback on Friday left TSM shares still extended after a September breakout. The stock has a year-to-date gain of 45%.
Chip Equipment: ASML Faces Mixed Market
Semiconductor equipment giant ASML Holdings (ASML) reports its Q3 results early Wednesday. FactSet analysts expect the Dutch maker of advanced photolithography gear to post year-over-year growth of 11% for both earnings and sales. For the fourth quarter, Wall Street models 12% sales and earnings gains. ASML’s business has been hindered by trade restrictions on the sale of leading-edge chip gear to China. However, memory chipmakers have started a new capex cycle, which will benefit ASML, analysts say. ASML shares are up 37% year to date.
Events Calendar: A Heavy Slate Of Conferences
Beyond earnings news, the coming week will also be busy with important industry gatherings. Oracle hosts its AI World confab in Las Vegas from Monday through Thursday. The event should gather plenty of interest following Oracle’s $300 billion deal with OpenAI, reported in September. Salesforce.com runs its Dreamforce AI conference from Tuesday through Thursday in San Francisco. In health care, the congress of the European Society of Medical Oncology will begin in Berlin on Friday and run into the following week.
Stock Market Earnings Briefs
Fastenal (FAST) ran up more than 40% to an August high, then started consolidating. Shares are still up 29% year to date, ahead of its third-quarter results Monday. Analysts expect an increase in sales momentum, to a 12% advance. Earnings are projected to gain 14%, a tad slower than in the second quarter. Analysts are generally neutral on the nuts and bolts provider, which acts as a bellwether to signal industrial demand.
Synchrony Financial (SYF) reports Q3 results early Wednesday. FactSet expects earnings to increase almost 15% to $2.23 per share on a slight downtick in revenue to $3.795 billion. SYF stock is trading in a flat base with a 77.41 buy point.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) reports Thursday with analysts looking for earnings growth to accelerate to 60%. Revenue growth is forecast to jump to 23%, the first double-digit gain in more than two years. Investors will listen for details on the company’s ambitious branch-expansion plans, announced in September.
BlackRock (BLK) releases its Q3 report early Tuesday. Analysts expect earnings to slide 1.4% to $11.30 per share on 20% revenue growth to $6.26 billion. BLK stock is trading in a buy zone for a flat base, above a 1171.89 buy point.
United Airlines (UAL) reports Q3 results early Thursday. Analysts expect earnings to drop 20% to $2.65 per share on 3.2% revenue growth to $15.33 billion.
CSX (CSX) posts Q3 results after Thursday’s close. Analysts expect EPS to slip 7% as revenue dips 1.1%, falling for a fourth straight quarter, FactSet says. But both are expected to turn positive vs. a year ago in Q4. CSX has touted a new partnership with BNSF as a growth driver in Q4. The two railroads face competition from a transcontinental railroad once Union Pacific‘s (UNP) deal for Norfolk Southern (NSC) closes.
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