When volatility increases in the equity market, traditional safe haven assets like commodities (e.g., gold) and bonds can often act as a buffer for portfolios. Bond prices have stabilized since making a bear cycle low in late 2023 and offer attractive yield. For one, the popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has an indicated yield of 4.14%. The ratio TLT to the S & P 500 Index (SPX) has improved intermediate-term momentum in response to an intermediate-term counter-trend ‘buy’ signal from the DeMARK Indicators. We liken the setup in the ratio to November 2023, June 2024, and February 2025. All three times TLT saw a phase of improved relative performance versus the SPX over the next 2-3 months. While we expect bonds to outperform stocks in the short term, we view it as counter-trend since the ratio has a declining 40-week moving average (MA). In absolute terms, TLT broke out above its 40-week MA in September and saw its weekly MACD turn positive, both of which were promising intermediate-term developments. Long-term momentum is improved per a recent “golden cross,” where the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA. Although the broader trend for TLT can be best described as neutral below long-term trendline resistance near $96.40. Before adding exposure to any asset, it is best to have a fresh technical catalyst to work with in absolute price terms. TLT has a daily MACD buy signal, as well as the support of the rising daily stochastic oscillator, which increases the chances of a minor breakout above the September peak near $90.50. Should this occur, it would be a short-term bullish development targeting the secondary resistance at the February peak near $92.50. Initial support for TLT is defined by the confluence of the 50- and 200-day MAs in the $88.00-$88.30 zone. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin DISCLOSURES: None. 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