Goldman has the consumer share at 55 percent by the end of the year. Then what?
Goldman Sees US Consumers Paying More Than Half of Trump Tariffs
Yahoo!Finance reports Goldman Sees US Consumers Paying More Than Half of Trump Tariffs
- US consumers will likely shoulder 55% of tariff costs by the end of the year.
- American companies pay 22%
- Foreign exporters would absorb 18% of tariff costs by cutting prices for goods,
- while 5% would be evaded
Corporate Share
For now “US businesses are likely bearing a larger share of the costs” as it takes time to raise prices, economists Elsie Peng and David Mericle wrote in the note.
Goldman’s latest report doesn’t include Trump’s most recent threat to increase levies on China to 100% and add restrictions on “critical” US software exports. “We are not assuming any changes to tariff rates on imports from China, but events in recent days suggest large risks,” the analysts wrote.
Goldman cost estimates are through the end of the year.
In 2026, I expect the corporate 22% share will increasingly fall on consumers.
Intermediate Production Use
A recent analysis from 2025 found that 51% of goods imported into the United States are intermediate goods, according to Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).
For every direct job in steel, aluminum, or copper production, there are hundreds of users of those metals.
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February 11, 2025: Trump’s Steel Tariffs Now Will Work as Good as the First Time
Q: How’s that? A: Very poorly.
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I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
The only way costs won’t go up is if there is a recession that kills demand. And don’t rule out stagflation.
It’s not just a matter of who pays the tariff because there are other economic costs, especially small business layoffs and bankruptcies.
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