A run of significant political elections

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Do you remember how 2024 was a year of significant elections? Well, that is very much the flavour of this week too.

Firstly, something that might or might not happen: the vote in the Diet, Japan’s parliament, to decide the country’s new prime minister. Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected president of the ruling Liberal Democratic party, was thought to be a shoo-in, making her Japan’s first female premier, but she faces a tougher path to power after the abrupt exit of coalition partner Komeito earlier this month.

The problem is that the LDP is still the largest party in Japan’s parliament, but lacks a majority in both the upper and lower houses. Takaichi’s path to the premiership now depends on whether the arch conservative can secure the support of the Japan Innovation party — the third-largest party in the lower house, as the FT’s Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis explains.

Members of the UK’s governing Labour party will choose a new deputy leader to replace Angela Rayner, who was forced to quit in a scandal over her payment of housing taxes, in a contest seen as a battle over the future direction of the party.

Lucy Powell, recently sacked from the cabinet by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, is the favourite to win the contest and has urged the party to tack to the left, including in tackling child poverty. She has said that the wealthy have done well out of the economy in recent years. Bridget Phillipson, education secretary, initially started as favourite in the contest, but her position as an “insider” in the Starmer team (as my colleague Stephen Bush explained in his Inside Politics newsletter) has damaged her chances. Starmer is very low in national approval ratings.

It’s been an unwelcome distraction for the prime minister. The result will be announced on Saturday.

While that is going on, voters in Ireland will decide the republic’s 10th president with the polls putting far-left independent opposition politician Catherine Connolly in a commanding lead over former minister Heather Humphreys. The election result will be announced on Saturday.

Connolly, a former barrister and clinical psychologist, who is 68 and a fluent Irish speaker, has vowed to speak up for Irish neutrality. She has managed to weather controversies — including why she hired a dissident republican with a gun conviction to work in her parliamentary office — while Humphreys, 62, from the centre-right Fine Gael party, has struggled to broaden her appeal. Polls show, however, that many voters remain undecided and are disappointed at the narrow choice on offer in this election. One candidate on the ticket dropped out after a scandal and two others failed to get on the ballot.

There has been controversy in the Ivory Coast general election, including a move to rename streets in the name of economic growth. Voting for that election will be held on Saturday.

And so to the corporate news, where the earnings season is now in full swing. This week’s strong themes in terms of results are defence companies, which are enjoying the good times thanks to European spending increases, and carmakers, whose immediate futures are more uncertain given US President Donald Trump’s anti-EV policies and the costs associated with the shift to electric vehicles. General Motors has already announced a $1.6bn charge to roll back its EV ambitions while Ford is reallocating resources to expand its petrol vehicle line-up.

It’s a bit late in the year in London to be enjoying ice cream, but expect much chatter in the City about the subject as Unilever shareholders vote on Tuesday whether to spin off the €15bn division responsible for the product.

Inflation is the headline economic news theme of the week, partly because of the eventual publication of the shutdown-delayed US consumer price index (CPI) data — here’s what my colleagues in the economics team have to say about that. The UK is the bad boy of the G7 when it comes to cost of living increases, so its report card on CPI and producer price index (PPI) data, out on Wednesday, will also be closely watched. There is concern about a further rise in the British headline rate, but also hope that this will be a peak, despite what the IMF says.

And while we all worry about monetary policy, the central bankers are venturing out on the speaker circuit to give commentary. Full details below.

Talking of which, now is the time to sign up to join FT journalists Chris Giles, Katie Martin and Claire Jones in conversation with former Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard and Fidelity’s Salman Ahmed on Thursday at 1pm BST for an exclusive subscriber webinar Markets on edge: central banks, bonds and the risks ahead. Register today and put your questions directly to our panel. Visit ft.com/edge.

If artificial intelligence is more your thing, the FT’s chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch and employment columnist Sarah O’Connor will be hosting a live Ask an Expert Q&A on the subject on Thursday at 1pm in London. Submit your questions here.

One more thing . . . 

Chopin-mania has broken out in the Polish homeland of the world famous composer. Pianists have been battling it out at Warsaw’s National Philharmonic in the 19th International Fryderyk Chopin Piano Competition, regarded as the Olympics of piano playing, according to the FT’s man on the ground Raphael Minder. After a weekend in which some of the world’s finest pianists have been competing on the keyboard, this Monday will see a winner announced, no doubt to a standing ovation.

Does Chopin satisfy your musical itch? What upcoming concerts have got your vote? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply, and may your week hit all the right notes.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China: Q3 GDP estimate, September retail sales figures, September industrial output data and interest rate announcement

• EU: updated Q2 GDP estimate

• Germany: September producer price index (PPI) of industrial products inflation rate data

• Japan: September convenience store sales

• Singapore: Deepavali. Financial markets closed

• UK: Rightmove House Price Index, REC Labour Market Tracker and S&P Global Consumer Sentiment Index

• US: The Conference Board leading index

• Results: Forvia Q3 sales, Plus500 Q3 trading update, Sandvik Q3, WR Berkley Q3

Tuesday

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords financial services regulation committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis

• Bank of Japan deputy governor Ryozo Himino to give a speech at the 2025 GZERO Summit Japan

• Unilever shareholders vote on the separation of the company’s ice cream business to create The Magnum Ice Cream Company, listed in Amsterdam, London and New York

• Canada: September consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• India: Diwali Laxmi Puja holiday. Financial markets closed.

• UK: September public sector finances

• US: September state employment figures

• Results: 3M Q3, BHP quarterly operational review, Bunzl Q3 trading statement, Capital One Financial Q3, Coca-Cola Company Q3, Danaher Q3, Elevance Health Q3, Equifax Q3, General Motors Q3, Halliburton Q3, Intuitive Surgical Q3, Lockheed Martin Q3, Mattel Q3, Nasdaq Q3, Netflix Q3, Northrop Grumman Q3, Omnicom Q3, Paccar Q3, Philip Morris Q3, PulteGroup Q3, Quest Diagnostics Q3, RTX Q3, Segro Q3 trading update, SigmaRoc Q3 trading update, Texas Instruments Q3, UniCredit Q3, Vale Q3 production and sales report, XP Power Q3 trading update

Wednesday

• City of London Corporation’s City Dinner hosted by Lord Mayor Alastair King at his official residence, Mansion House. Speeches from Financial Conduct Authority chief executive Nikhil Rathi and Sam Woods, deputy governor for Prudential Regulation at the Bank of England and chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority

• British business lobbying group CBI holds its annual general meeting. Speakers will include chief executive Rain Newton-Smith and chair Rupert Soames.

• South Africa: September CPI inflation rate data

• South Korea: September PPI inflation rate data

• UK: September CPI and PPI inflation rate data. Also, a UK House Price Index update and the new living wage figures for 2025-26

• Results: Aberdeen assets under management and flows trading update, Alcoa Q3, Amphenol Q3, AT&T Q3, Barclays Q3, Boliden Q3, CME Q3, Crown Castle Q3, DNB Bank Q3, EQT Q3, Fresnillo Q3 production report, Halfords trading update, Heathrow Q3 trading statement, Heineken Q3 trading update, Hermès Q3 sales, Hilton Q3, Hochschild Mining Q3 production report, IBM Q3, Lam Research Q1, Mirvac Q3, Moody’s Q3, Northern Trust Q3, PensionBee Q3 trading update, Quilter Q3 trading update, Randstad Q3, Reckitt Benckiser Q3 trading update, SAP Q3, Softcat FY, Tesla Q3, Wabtec Q3

Thursday

• Jonathan Hall, external member of the Bank of England’s financial policy committee, speaks at a CBI event on balancing financial stability and growth

• Australia: September labour force data

• EU: October FCCI flash consumer confidence indicator

• South Korea: interest rate announcement

• Turkey: interest rate announcement

• UK: British Retail Consortium October Consumer Sentiment Monitor. Also, 2025 employee earnings data

• US: August state job openings and labour turnover data

• Results: AJ Bell FY trading update, American Airlines Q3, Antofagasta Q3 production report, Beiersdorf Q3/9M, Blackstone Q3, Bloomsbury Publishing HY, CBRE Q3, Dassault Systemes Q3, Dow Q3, Dunelm Q1 trading update, FirstEnergy Q3, Ford Motor Company Q3, Fortescue September quarterly production report, Foxtons Q3 trading update, Freeport-McMoRan Q3, Hasbro Q3, Honeywell Q3, Hunting trading statement, Inchcape Q3 trading update, Intel Q3, IHG Q3 trading update, St James’s Place Q3 new business announcement, Kerry Group Q3, Kone Q3/9M, Kuehne + Nagel Q3, London Stock Exchange Group Q3 trading statement (revenues only), Lloyds Banking Group Q3, Newmont Q3, Nokia Q3, Norfolk Southern Q3, Orange Q3, O’Reilly Automotive Q3, Packaging Corp of America Q3, PG&E Q3, RELX 9M trading update, Renault Q3 sales, Renishaw trading update, Rentokil Initial Q3 trading update, Roche Q3 sales, Schroders Q3 update, Southwest Airlines Q3, Thales Q3 sales, Sodexo FY, STMicroelectronics Q3, Swedbank HY, Textron Q3, Unilever Q3 trading statement, Union Pacific Q3, Verisign Q3, Western Union Q3, Wickes Q3 trading update

Friday

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock delivers remarks at the Bradfield Oration at the Sydney Opera House

• Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau take part in a panel discussion on ‘Global Shifts and Eurozone Anchors: A Central Bank Perspective’ at the Berlin Global Dialogue

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global flash manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Japan: September CPI inflation rate data

• UK: September retail sales figures for Great Britain and GfK consumer confidence survey

• US: September CPI inflation rate data

• Results: Baker Hughes Q3, ENI Q3, General Dynamics Q3, NatWest Q3, Norsk Hydro Q3, Procter & Gamble Q1, Sanofi Q3, Schindler Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• India: Diwali, festival of lights, celebrated by Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists lighting candles and exchanging gifts begins

• Poland: winner announced in the 19th International Fryderyk Chopin Piano Competition

• Slovenia: Prime Minister Robert Golob hosts the annual gathering of Med9, an informal group of like-minded Mediterranean EU member states, in Portorož. Attendees expected to include French President Emmanuel Macron

• US: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets Donald Trump at the White House, his first one-on-one meeting with the president

Tuesday

• France: former president Nicolas Sarkozy must present himself at La Santé prison in Paris to start his five-year prison sentence.

• Japan: tentative date for the extraordinary session of the Diet to elect the country’s next prime minister

• UK: chancellor Rachel Reeves co-hosts the UK Regional Investment Summit in Birmingham, highlighting local investment opportunities in areas such as housing, infrastructure, AI and energy

Wednesday

• Germany: Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany in London. The meeting aims to support stability, security and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region

Thursday

• Belgium: European Council meeting of EU heads of state and government, chaired by Council President António Costa

• Hungary: Republic Day, anniversary of 1956 uprising

Friday

• UN Day, this year marking the 80th anniversary of the UN Charter coming into force

• Ireland: presidential election

• US: World Series baseball tournament begins

Saturday

• China: 80th anniversary commemoration of ‘Taiwan’s recovery from Japanese occupation’, when in 1945 Chinese general Chen Yi arrived in Taiwan to receive the surrender of the Japanese forces there

• Ivory Coast: general election

• UK: Labour party deputy leader election result announced

Sunday

• Argentina: parliamentary elections

• Austria: National Day, commemorating the 1955 State Treaty restoring national sovereignty and the end of post-second world war occupation

• EU: European Summer Time ends — clocks go back one hour

• Malaysia: start of the 47th Asean Summit in Kuala Lumpur. Donald Trump has agreed to attend if he can preside over a ceremonial signing of a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand on the summit sidelines, according to Politico. China’s President Xi Jinping will also be flying in

• UK: British Summer Time ends — clocks go back one hour