Markets enter the eye of risk-event storm

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

Yields are mercifully lower as the week draws to a close, removing some of the angst that has weighed on equities and allowing the beaten-down yen and euro to regain some composure against the dollar.

But this relative calm feels like the eye of the storm as risk events swirl on the horizon next week: mega-cap earnings from five of the “Magnificent 7”; a highly consequential U.S. payrolls report on Friday; and the final lap going into a likely photo-finish U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.

The “Trump trade” has been gathering momentum with a sharp rise in the odds of a second Donald Trump presidency on some betting platforms, although polls have the race neck-and-neck.

The upshot in markets thus far is a dollar on track for a fourth week of gains and Treasury yields set for a sixth weekly advance, on Trump’s platform of more tariffs and taxes, seen as inflationary by many in the markets.

Meanwhile, a spate of robust U.S. economic data has spurred a rapid paring back of bets on Fed easing, which is also buoying yields and the dollar.

Stocks are getting a little respite to finish the week but it’s far from a recovery. Optimism over Tesla’s earnings was the driver for most of Wall Street’s limited overnight gains, and the Dow actually fell. Investors are now looking ahead to earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft over a three-day period from Tuesday.

Stocks in Asia are mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei sliding 1% amid a rebound in the yen and uncertainty over a general election on Sunday that could deprive the coalition government of its lower house majority.

The MSCI world equity index is still limping towards a 1.2% loss for the week, set to snap a two-week winning streak.

Pan-European STOXX 50 futures are pointing slightly lower, with the cash STOXX 600 heading for a 1.1% weekly decline.

For Europe, the docket of scheduled events is on the lighter side: Germany’s Ifo surveys headline the macro calendar for Friday, while earnings are due from Sanofi, Natwest and Mercedes-Benz, among others.

Later in Washington, the annual IMF-World Bank meetings – where policymakers of all stripes step up to air their views – enter the penultimate day. Japanese officials have used the venue to issue warnings to speculators against pushing down the yen. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on Saturday.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

-German Ifo surveys (Oct)

-Earnings from Sanofi, Natwest and Mercedes-Benz

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