Probability of a recession in the U.S. is 33% in the next 12 months. Europe is 50%. Yikes.

I am curious, how do they come up with this probability number? And why is Europe worse than US?

CNBC Fed Survey: Respondents, on average, see a 33% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/15/cnbc-fed-survey-33-percent-of-respondents-see-probability-of-u-s-recession.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

Forecasters see growing chance of a recession as Fed hikes rates this year https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/forecasters-sees-growing-chance-of-a-recession-as-fed-hikes-rates-this-year-to-fight-inflation.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard