Stock Indexes End Volatile Session Mostly Higher; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Continue Run of Strong Bank Results

US-China Trade Dispute Fans Worries About What’s Next for the Stock Market

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U.S.-China trade tensions are back—and things could get worse for investors before they get better, some on Wall Street say, with the possibility of a big pullback in stocks and a retreat in some hot sectors.

Absent a near-term truce, according to analysts, the bull market that has chugged higher since April could be stopped in its tracks as investors grow wary about how long momentum stocks can keep climbing and harbor anxiety around rich valuations.

Recent market action has already signaled what could come: Gold has climbed, volatility has picked up, and shares of tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) have shown vulnerability, dragging on broad market indexes. Still, investors haven’t folded: the S&P 500, the Dow industrials, and the Nasdaq are all still near record levels.

Friday’s trade escalation with China appears to represent the first meaningful decline of this bull run, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson. And without a de-escalation in trade tensions between the world’s largest economies, he wrote, stocks could see a decline in the S&P 500 of more than 15%. (The index fell over 11% from April 1, the day before Liberation Day, to its closing low on April 8.)

The best hedges against short-term policy uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley, is quality—in short, companies with strong fundamental and financial characteristics—and healthcare, the “preferred” defensive sector play. Semiconductors, quantum computing, and crowded stocks that have been climbing higher have the “most downside risk,” he wrote. Given the risk of outsize potential tariffs on China, the firm is underweight on consumer discretionary goods stocks.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

As Krispy Kreme’s US Business and Stock Price Have Stumbled, the Donut Chain Looks Abroad

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Krispy Kreme is hoping international customers have the sweet tooth that helps revive the donut chain’s fortunes.

The maker of its eponymous donuts opened a shop in Madrid earlier this month and said Wednesday it plans to roll out two more in the Spanish city this year. It will open more than 50 new locations throughout the country over the next four years.

CEO Josh Charlesworth said the Madrid opening “strengthens our international presence,” and “reinforces our commitment to scaling efficiently through our franchise model that supports sustainable, profitable growth.”

The chain is also set to open two locations in São Paulo, Brazil, and make its debut in Uzbekistan, all before the end of 2025.

Krispy Kreme (DNUT) shares have lost 65% of their value so far in 2025, as the company posted sales declines and net losses in both the first and second quarters. The stock was down about 2% in afternoon trading Wednesday.

Read the full article here.

–Bill McColl

Real Estate Is Top-Performing S&P 500 Sector Wednesday

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The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector was the top performer of the 11 industries tracked by the benchmark index.

The sector was up 1.7% in recent trading, led by shares of Prologis (PLD), which were 6.5% higher.

The REIT reported third-quarter results before the bell, and both earnings per share and core FFO per share came in better than expected.

In addition, Prologis president Dan Letter said the company was “extending our leadership position in logistics to data centers, where we are investing to meet the growing power demands of digital infrastructure.”

Including today’s gains, Prologis shares are up 16% this year.

F5 Stock Drops Following Cybersecurity Incident Disclosure

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Shares of F5 (FFIV) were down 5% in recent trading after the cloud services company disclosed a cyberattack by government hackers in a security filing.

The firm said that on Aug. 9, it “learned that a highly sophisticated nation-state threat actor had gained unauthorized access to certain Company systems.”

F5 said that it “determined that the threat actor maintained long-term, persistent access to certain F5 systems, including the BIG-IP product development environment and engineering knowledge management platform.” It added that the “incident has not had a material impact” on its operations.

Despite today’s sharp declines, F5 shares are up about 30% this year, well above the roughly 13% gains of the S&P 500.

Chip Stocks Are Hot Today. AMD Is Just One Example.

3 hr 1 min ago

Chip stocks are hot.

Semiconductor shares are rising Wednesday, lifted by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) which, with a recent gain of about 8%, was among the S&P 500’s top gainers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) of chip stocks was recently up 2.5%, looking strong even on an upbeat day for stocks broadly.

Sustained optimism regarding spending on the buildout of artificial intelligence capabilities is helping the sector. AMD yesterday announced a deal to sell chips to Oracle (ORCL), which followed another big partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI that landed earlier this month. An upbeat outlook from a chipmaking equipment leader hasn’t hurt; neither has a multibillion-dollar data center deal.

OpenAI news also lifted Broadcom (AVGO) earlier this week, with the companies announcing a deal Citi analysts estimated could be worth $100 billion in revenue; its shares were recently ahead 2%.

Read the full article here.

–David Marino-Nachison

Nvidia, Microsoft, and BlackRock Just Struck a Massive AI Data Center Deal

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AI darling Nvidia just struck another big data center deal—this time as part of a group with Microsoft, BlackRock, and others.

A consortium led by BlackRock (BLK), its Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) said Wednesday it would buy AI data center infrastructure company Aligned Data Centers in an agreement valued at $40 billion.

Aligned Data Centers is one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing data center firms, and the group said the purchase “will fuel the expansion of next-generation cloud and AI infrastructure.” 

The deal marks the latest in a string of high-profile agreements and partnerships for AI chip leader Nvidia, and infrastructure deals for BlackRock, which has been eying energy providers as another way to ride the AI boom.

BlackRock CEO and AIP Chair Larry Fink said that with the acquisition, “we further our goal of delivering the infrastructure necessary to power the future of AI, while offering our clients attractive opportunities to participate in its growth.”

Shares of Nvidia and Microsoft were up less than 1% in recent trading following the news, amid broader gains after a down day for the tech sector yesterday. Shares of BlackRock were little changed.

–Bill McColl

What Chipmaking Equipment Giant ASML’s Q3 Results Said About AI Demand

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Chipmaking equipment supplier ASML says it’s upbeat on AI demand, even in the face trade policy headwinds.

The Netherlands-based firm said it doesn’t see its 2026 sales falling from 2025 levels even though it expects sales in China to “decline significantly,” thanks in part to strong demand for its machines to make chips supporting AI data centers.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said the company has seen “continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and (has) also seen this extending to more customers.” 

U.S.-listed shares of ASML (ASML) were up about 3% in recent trading. Shares of other companies in the semiconductor industry, including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Lam Research (LRCX), also gained after a down day for the sector yesterday.

Read the full article here.

–Bill McColl

Tariffs Have Had A Modest Impact on US Growth, But Risks Remain

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Tariffs aren’t hurting the U.S. economy as much as expected, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund. But they are still weighing on U.S. economic growth.

U.S. trade deals helped blunt the impact of the tariffs, while quick action from corporations to front-load buying and reroute supply chains also helped, the IMF’s latest revisions to its World Economic Outlook showed.

“The good news is that the growth downgrade is at the modest end of the range. The reasons are clear. The United States negotiated trade deals with various countries and provided multiple exemptions,” wrote IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

The IMF projected that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 2% in 2025 and another 2.1% in 2026. That’s an improvement from the 1.8% U.S. growth projection the IMF made in April when tariff threats were escalating between the U.S. and its trading partners. But that growth is still below January’s estimate of 2.7% growth. Global economic growth is also projected to slow slightly in 2025 and 2026, the Fund said. 

The IMF report also projected U.S. inflation to decline over the next two years, while U.S. unemployment was projected to moderately increase. The report comes as U.S. inflation has not increased substantially despite President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, while U.S. GDP grew at 3.8% in the second quarter. 

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

Progressive Stock Leads S&P 500 Decliners After Weak Q3 Results

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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 in the opening hour of trading Wednesday, tumbling more than 8%.

The Mayfield Village, Ohio-based insurer reported third-quarter profit of $4.45 per share on net premiums written of $21.38 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $5.25 and $21.60 billion, respectively.

Shares are down about 9% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has advanced about 14%.

Fed Officials Are Divided About Interest Rates

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Officials at the Federal Reserve are divided about how to set the central bank’s key interest rate in the coming months, and may not get the data they need to settle their differences anytime soon.

As evidenced in recent speeches and the minutes of their September meeting, a split is emerging between members of the Federal Open Market Committee. One group is more concerned about the deteriorating labor market and thinks the Fed should lower its benchmark interest rate significantly to stave off job losses. The other group sees inflation as the greater threat, and advocates for a more cautious approach to rate cuts.

Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its next two meetings. However, the path after that is murkier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Fed officials are trying to balance the demands of their dual mandate from Congress to keep inflation low and employment high. The Fed could help the faltering labor market by lowering its key interest rate, or it could fight inflation by keeping it higher, but it can’t do both at the same time. Members of the Fed’s 12-member policy committee have differing views on how to approach that dilemma.

Read the full article here.

Bunge Stock Pops After Trump Threat to Embargo Chinese Cooking Oil, Reports Segment Changes After Merger

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Shares of agricultural firm Bunge Global (BG) were up more than 11% in recent trading to lead the S&P 500 Wednesday after President Trump threatened to embargo Chinese cooking oil and the company announced changes to its segment and volume reporting following its merger with Viterra Limited.

Tuesday afternoon, Trump wrote on his Truth Social network that “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.”

Early Wednesday, the St. Louis-based firm said that starting with the current quarter, it will report results from its Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining, and Grain Merchandising and Milling segments.

In addition, Bunge said it “expects full-year 2025 adjusted EPS in the range of approximately $7.30 to $7.60, which reflects an expected second half adjusted EPS in the range of $4.00 to $4.25.” Before the merger, which closed July 2, it saw 2025 adjusted EPS of “approximately $7.75.”

Bunge shares have risen about 18% year-to-date.

UPDATE—This post has been updated with additional information and the latest share price.

Kemper Stock Sinks as CEO Steps Down

8 hr 20 min ago

Shares of Kemper (KMPR) sank more than 8% in premarket trading after the specialty insurer announced that CEO Joseph P. Lacher, Jr. was stepping down, effective immediately.

The Chicago-based firm said Lacher, who had served as CEO for nearly a decade, will be replaced on an interim basis by Executive Vice President, Secretary, and General Counsel C. Thomas Evans, Jr. Lacher will remain with Kemper “in an advisory capacity through the end of the year to support the transition process,” it said.

Kemper shares had shed nearly a quarter of their value this year entering Wednesday.

Stock Futures Point Higher After Volatile Session

8 hr 56 min ago

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.6%.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%.