Instead of under promising and overdelivering, Trump usually does the opposite.
Fantastic Deal Coming Up?
Please consider Trump vows to reach a ‘fantastic deal’ with China after future meeting with Xi
President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. commands “great respect” from Beijing and that he will reach a “fantastic deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping when the two leaders meet soon.
Trump’s remarks come after Beijing infuriated him by expanding export controls on rare earth products that are used in smartphones, fighter jets, electric vehicles and more. Trump spoke as he hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House, celebrating an agreement with the U.S. ally as a potential counterpoint to China’s near-monopoly in processing those critical minerals.
“I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,” Trump said. “It’s going to be a great trade deal. It’s going to be fantastic for both countries, and it’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.”
When asked about China’s leverage, Trump said Beijing “threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs.” But he insisted his good relationship with Xi means they would work out ”a very fair deal.”
The president has threatened to impose a new 100% tariff on China in response to Beijing’s expanded rules on rare earth products. And he said Monday that it has already had results.
“Now, they’re treating us with great respect,” Trump said. “Now, we’ll see what happens. I said, if we don’t make a deal, I’m putting on an additional 100% on November 1. I think we’ll make a deal.”
When asked if he could yield to Beijing’s pressure not to support Taiwan independence in exchange for a deal, Trump said, “Well, I’m not going to talk about that.”
What Does a Fantastic Deal Look Like?
Trump will brag about any deal. It will be fantastic by definition. Fantastic to me would be cancellation of reciprocal tariffs. But that won’t happen.
In between the next-to-nothing scenarios and the world’s fair of ending reciprocal tariffs, there is a lot of mushy ground.
Trump wants China to buy more soybeans while ending export controls on rare earths.
Great.
What is Trump offering in return? The prior status quo before reciprocal madness? Taiwan? What?
If Trump demand the world and offers nothing but tariff threats, there will be no deal at all.
Be prepared for a “fantastic” deal that centers around the pre-existing status quo, unwinding some of Trumps reciprocal tariff buffoonery in return for China agreeing to buy more soybeans.
Would that be fantastic?
If There’s a Deal, Will It Stick?
That depends more on what Trump does than China.
If Trump throws another hissy fit with tariffs or export restrictions, China would respond in kind.
Perhaps Trump has figured that out by now, but don’t count on it.
My expectation is for an uneasy truce.
If there’s more to it than that, Trump will have to give up something.
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