The buildup of U.S. military forces near Venezuela and a series of deadly attacks on suspected drug-trafficking boats in waters off its coast has raised the spectre of a coup or invasion against the South American country.
The Trump administration has made no secret of the fact that it wants to see Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of power. Trump has called Maduro a drug lord and also accused Venezuela of emptying its prisons into the U.S., and exporting drugs into the country.
Trump has also said he was considering carrying out land operations on the country. This has led to speculation that the U.S. could try to orchestrate some sort of coup, or launch a military invasion to oust the leader. Yet that still appears unlikely, some experts say, as any military action launched by the Trump administration would face significant resistance.
“In terms of sending in the U.S. military to defeat the Venezuelan military and occupy the country, I don’t see it,” said William LeoGrande, a professor of government at American University in Washington, D.C., and an expert on Latin America.
While the U.S. has intervened in Latin American regimes before, LeoGrande says it has never invaded a country south of Panama, and they’ve all been in Central America and the Caribbean.
“Venezuela is not a small country,” he said.
Since early September, U.S. forces have destroyed at least nine boats, killing 37 people. The latest attacks were announced Wednesday by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said the U.S. Military had launched two strikes on alleged drug-carrying vessels in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The U.S. has claimed, without providing evidence, that the vessels are being used for drug trafficking and is treating the alleged drug traffickers as unlawful combatants.
This has led some observers to accuse Washington of engaging in military strikes that violate U.S. and international law.
Trump approves CIA covert operations
Last week, Trump disclosed that he had authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela. The U.S. has also announced a $50 million US reward for any information leading to the arrest of Maduro on drug trafficking charges.
Meanwhile, The Associated Press reported that that the U.S. has built up military forces in the region, including a naval task force of eight warships, a squadron of fighter jets now based in Puerto Rico and more than 6,000 sailors and marines.
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he has authorized CIA operations in Venezuela as part of increased pressure against the country, which Trump blames for an influx of drugs and criminals.
While it’s still unclear whether Trump is willing to launch an invasion, LeoGrande noted that the U.S. forces currently in the area would hardly be enough to occupy the country.
Trump would also likely face significant backlash from some elements of the non-interventionist MAGA base, who criticized the president for his strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June.
“An invasion of Venezuela is not in the cards,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Ramsey pointed out that Venezuela is home to one of the largest stockpiles of weapons in the Western hemisphere. As well, there are several groups operating in the country that would almost certainly take up arms in the event of a U.S. military intervention, he said.
That includes Colombian guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), along with loyal elements of the Venezuelan military, and pro-government paramilitary forces called colectivos, he said.
Risk of ‘Libyan-style meltdown’
There’s also the Bolivarian militia, which is a civilian militia that Maduro has recruited specifically to counter the possibility of U.S. military intervention, Ramsey said.
“There’s a real risk that we end up with a Libya-style meltdown in a country that’s just a three-hour flight from Miami,” he said, referring to what happened when the fall of Libyan Leader Moammar Gadhafi led to a power vacuum and resulted in an escalation of violence, clashes between rival militias and a second civil war.
As for Venezuelan land targets, the government does have a capable air defence system, at least one that would likely force direct confrontation with U.S. fighter jets, according to Ramsey.
“So far that’s been a red line that the administration hasn’t crossed,” he said.
“It’s not so simple as hitting a few safe houses or cocaine laboratories in Venezuela.”
Last month, two Venezuelan F-16s flew over a U.S. destroyer and left untouched, though it did trigger a stern warning from the Pentagon.
“The fact that those planes weren’t blown out of the sky suggests that this administration still has some guardrails in place,” Ramsey said.
What’s President Donald Trump’s endgame with repeated U.S. strikes on boats near Venezuela? Andrew Chang breaks down the threats the Trump administration says it’s reacting to and why Venezuela’s relationship with China may also be a factor.
Images provided by Getty Images, The Canadian Press and Reuters.
Challenges of regime change
Even without direct military intervention, any kind of regime change in Venezuela comes with its own set of challenges, observers say.
The U.S. is certainly no stranger to overthrowing Latin American leaders or goverments.
It invaded Grenada in 1983 following a Marxist-led coup of the government there, and invaded Panama in 1989 to depose General Manuel Noriega on charges of drug trafficking.
The CIA has also played a major role in overthrowing Latin American governments. While the attempt failed in Cuba, it has been successful in places like Guatemala and Chile.
But in those cases, LeoGrande notes turning the military against the government had been key, and he says that won’t necessarily be easy in Venezuela.
“That’s the problem the CIA is going to have,” he said. “They’re not going to be able to split the army from the regime.”
Maduro has been ‘coup-proofing’
Ramsey says Maduro has been very good at keeping the upper ranks of the military happy to quell any dissent.
“He has gone through 25 years of coup-proofing,” he said. “I don’t see the Venezuelan military simply unplugging from Maduro and plugging into the opposition … that has been promising to bring them to justice for two decades.”
LeoGrande said much of the action Trump’s taken so far has been to show that he’s tough on drugs.
So instead of orchestrating a coup or launching a military invasion, he says Trump could just launch a few more strikes on alleged drug boats before declaring victory.
“He can blow up a lot more stuff and say, ‘Well, you know, we’ve really, and even potentially stopped the flow of drugs … and declare victory from that,” LeoGrande said. “When blowing up the boat stops being a headline, it stops having performative value.”
Ramsey says he believes the president likely hasn’t decided yet what to do about Venezuela, possibly because there are competing camps in his administration with different views on the path forward.
That includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, an active proponent of regime change, versus Richard Grenell, a special presidential envoy, who favours the diplomatic path and has been seeking to strike some kind of deal with Maduro.
Currently, Ramsey says it seems like the Rubio wing is winning. However, he notes that if it becomes clear that the only way to force Maduro out is by risking a Libya-style meltdown, then “there’s a chance that Trump’s transactional nature can re-emerge on Venezuela.”
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