Thursday, May 30, 2024

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Hungary: Cautious optimism

After an expected recession in 2023, better growth prospects lie ahead in 2024. Economic activity is expected to be driven by both an improvement in domestic demand and a slight rebound in growth in the Eurozone. The monetary easing cycle initiated at the end of 2023 should continue, albeit cautiously, due to the persistence of strong wage pressure. External accounts remain strong, with foreign exchange reserves having increased for several years. Hungary is expected to post a current account surplus in 2023, after a deficit of -8.2% of GDP in 2022. As to public accounts, the budget deficit has continued to deteriorate, and is expected to exceed 5% of GDP in 2023. Like many European countries, Hungary may face an excessive deficit procedure in 2024.

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